WEBVTT 00:00:00.020 --> 00:00:03.500 By now, you've no doubt heard about the latest polymarket scandal. 00:00:03.780 --> 00:00:08.760 We're learning that a special forces soldier has been charged for making more 00:00:08.760 --> 00:00:15.080 than $400,000 by betting on whether or not Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro 00:00:15.080 --> 00:00:17.200 would be removed from office. 00:00:17.420 --> 00:00:21.340 And here's the thing. According to the indictment, the officer participated 00:00:21.340 --> 00:00:28.600 in the planning and execution of the operation and used that classified information to allegedly profit. 00:00:29.160 --> 00:00:32.460 But have you heard Trump's response to this scandal? 00:00:32.980 --> 00:00:37.540 The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. 00:00:38.160 --> 00:00:42.240 And you look at what's going on all over the world in Europe and every place 00:00:42.240 --> 00:00:45.120 they're doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of it. 00:00:45.180 --> 00:00:51.000 I don't like it conceptually, but it is what it is. It is what it is. 00:00:51.520 --> 00:00:53.380 But what is it exactly? 00:00:54.000 --> 00:00:57.500 Don't worry if you're new to this polymarket thing. Today on The Corbett Report, 00:00:57.680 --> 00:01:00.820 I'm going to explain to you what Polymarket is, how it functions, 00:01:01.040 --> 00:01:03.320 and where this insidious idea came from. 00:01:03.480 --> 00:01:07.780 And then I'm going to explain to you how it can be used in the next generation 00:01:07.780 --> 00:01:12.680 of predictive programming false flag events. Are you ready? Let's go. 00:01:22.320 --> 00:01:23.360 CorbettReport.com, 00:01:27.840 --> 00:01:30.800 Welcome back, friends. Welcome back to another edition of The Corbett Report. 00:01:31.040 --> 00:01:33.700 I'm your host, James Corbett of CorbettReport.com, coming to you, 00:01:33.860 --> 00:01:38.920 as always, from the sunny climes of Western Japan here in April of 2026 with 00:01:38.920 --> 00:01:45.240 episode 500 of The Corbett Report podcast, What No One Is Saying About Polymarket. 00:01:45.960 --> 00:01:49.700 Now, I would ask, have you heard the latest story about Polymarket, 00:01:49.860 --> 00:01:53.680 but you could well respond by saying which story, because yes, 00:01:53.960 --> 00:01:58.440 in case you haven't noticed, Polymarket is all over the news these days. 00:01:58.780 --> 00:02:03.260 First and foremost, there is that story of U.S. 00:02:03.600 --> 00:02:10.680 Special Forces Officer Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was caught up 00:02:10.680 --> 00:02:17.860 in a scandal pocketing a cool 400 G's from his own insider information about the raid on Maduro. 00:02:18.940 --> 00:02:23.340 At the center of this case is Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 00:02:23.500 --> 00:02:27.560 based in North Carolina, and prosecutors allege that he placed a bet on the 00:02:27.560 --> 00:02:31.860 top-secret raid literally hours before the president announced it. 00:02:31.960 --> 00:02:36.880 In total, he placed about 13 bets that were all related to Maduro and Venezuela, 00:02:37.120 --> 00:02:43.540 wagering $33,000 in total, and he netted more than $400,000. 00:02:43.980 --> 00:02:48.700 Now, according to the indictment, the soldier also tried to cover up his tracks 00:02:48.700 --> 00:02:53.400 Just three days after Maduro's capture, Van Dyke asked Polymarket, 00:02:53.640 --> 00:02:57.280 which was the prediction market that he betted on, to delete his account. 00:02:57.460 --> 00:03:01.540 And then prosecutors actually say that he tried to switch the email that was 00:03:01.540 --> 00:03:02.920 associated with his profile. 00:03:03.670 --> 00:03:08.430 But that isn't the only news story about Polymarket that's making its way through 00:03:08.430 --> 00:03:13.170 the newswires lately. For example, you might have seen this story from the Times of Israel. 00:03:13.370 --> 00:03:19.310 Israeli Air Force major charged with using classified info to place bets on Polymarket, 00:03:19.490 --> 00:03:24.290 which notes an Israeli Air Force reservist is suspected of having used classified 00:03:24.290 --> 00:03:26.410 information to place bets on the 00:03:26.410 --> 00:03:30.790 Polymarket prediction site relating to Israel's war with Iran last year. 00:03:30.790 --> 00:03:35.930 A Tel Aviv court revealed on Thursday, talking about the so-called 12-day war 00:03:35.930 --> 00:03:43.930 in June 2025 and the suspicion that this Air Force reservist used his insider 00:03:43.930 --> 00:03:47.110 classified information to bet on the timing of that war. 00:03:47.270 --> 00:03:50.110 But it's not just about military operations. It's about, well, 00:03:50.550 --> 00:03:51.490 everything you can imagine. 00:03:51.650 --> 00:03:54.750 For example, there's this Bloomberg story that came out recently. 00:03:54.750 --> 00:04:00.330 France probes weather data tampering after surge in polymarket bets, 00:04:00.490 --> 00:04:04.070 which notes that France's forecasting office flagged suspected tampering with 00:04:04.070 --> 00:04:09.630 weather sensors at the country's largest airport and referred the case to police. 00:04:09.630 --> 00:04:14.150 Talking about automated temperature readings taken at Matteo France's weather 00:04:14.150 --> 00:04:19.070 station at Charles de Gaulle International Airport spiked four degrees Celsius 00:04:19.070 --> 00:04:24.950 and five degrees Celsius unexpectedly in the evenings of April 6th and April 15th, respectively. 00:04:25.570 --> 00:04:28.590 Reaching the highest temperature recorded at the site on those days. 00:04:28.790 --> 00:04:30.190 Data from the installation show. 00:04:30.450 --> 00:04:33.770 Readings from the site are important for the safe operation of the airports. 00:04:34.430 --> 00:04:39.030 And they are also used to settle contracts for daily high temperatures on Polymarket, 00:04:39.410 --> 00:04:44.430 according to information on the website where traders place bets on real world outcomes. 00:04:44.830 --> 00:04:49.290 And here is the meat and potatoes. So looking at that anomalous spike, 00:04:49.450 --> 00:04:54.110 the highest spike in temperatures ever recorded on that date in that location. 00:04:54.110 --> 00:04:58.270 Prediction market traders and independent meteorologists in a French weather 00:04:58.270 --> 00:05:03.810 discussion forum flagged the data irregularities and questioned the results of the contracts, 00:05:03.990 --> 00:05:10.470 which attracted roughly $1.4 million in combined bets, according to Polymarket data. 00:05:10.890 --> 00:05:15.690 Total betting for each was more than double the typical volume for other daily 00:05:15.690 --> 00:05:18.650 Paris temperature contracts in April. 00:05:19.110 --> 00:05:23.490 Okay, that's a fascinating story in and of itself and talks about a number of 00:05:23.490 --> 00:05:28.130 stories that I think are important to the, well, concerned audience everywhere 00:05:28.130 --> 00:05:29.570 and certainly members of The Corbett Report. 00:05:29.690 --> 00:05:34.890 For example, people who are interested in the tampering with temperature data, but also, 00:05:35.170 --> 00:05:41.390 of course, what it tells us about inside information and trading and how trading 00:05:41.390 --> 00:05:45.470 can be manipulated and the results of those trades can be manipulated and things 00:05:45.470 --> 00:05:47.310 to look out for with regard to this. 00:05:47.430 --> 00:05:54.370 For example, an unusual spike in activity on a particular option or stock or 00:05:54.370 --> 00:06:00.570 bet right before a completely anomalous reading or event occurs in that space. 00:06:00.750 --> 00:06:04.370 If that sounds familiar, ding, ding, ding, you've been paying attention to, 00:06:04.630 --> 00:06:10.950 for example, the 9-11 inside information advanced trading that clearly demonstrably 00:06:10.950 --> 00:06:15.950 took place around the events of September 11th, 2001, and you will know all 00:06:15.950 --> 00:06:18.570 about that if, for example, you have read, 00:06:19.270 --> 00:06:22.950 Reportage, Essays on the New World Order, in which, of course, 00:06:23.090 --> 00:06:26.890 I have an entire essay about the 9-11 insider trading. 00:06:28.290 --> 00:06:33.690 To be sure, insider trading almost certainly did transpire in the weeks before 9-11. 00:06:34.640 --> 00:06:38.440 Although some have pointed to the commission report's no conceivable ties to 00:06:38.440 --> 00:06:42.620 Al-Qaeda line as proof that the theory of investor foreknowledge has been successfully 00:06:42.620 --> 00:06:46.040 debunked, the intervening years have seen the release of not one, 00:06:46.360 --> 00:06:51.440 not two, but three separate scientific papers establishing the statistical likelihood 00:06:51.440 --> 00:06:55.580 that advanced knowledge was the reason for the anomalous trading leading up to the attacks. 00:06:57.220 --> 00:07:01.520 In Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 00:07:01.660 --> 00:07:07.120 2001, University of Chicago professor Alan Potishman concluded quote, 00:07:07.960 --> 00:07:12.360 examination of the option trading leading up to September 11 reveals that there 00:07:12.360 --> 00:07:17.260 was an unusually high level of put buying this finding is consistent with informed 00:07:17.260 --> 00:07:21.380 investors having traded options in advance of the attacks end quote, 00:07:22.980 --> 00:07:28.040 In Detecting Abnormal Trading Activities in Option Markets, researchers at the 00:07:28.040 --> 00:07:32.080 University of Zurich used econometric methods to confirm unusual put option 00:07:32.080 --> 00:07:37.260 activity on the stocks of key airlines, banks, and reinsurers in the weeks prior to 9-11. 00:07:38.360 --> 00:07:43.680 And in Was There Abnormal Trading in the S&P 500 Index Options Prior to the 00:07:43.680 --> 00:07:48.080 September 11 Attacks, a team of researchers concluded that abnormal activity 00:07:48.080 --> 00:07:52.360 in the S&P 500 Index Options market around the time of the attack, quote, 00:07:52.760 --> 00:07:57.420 is consistent with insiders anticipating the 9-11 attacks, end quote. 00:07:58.700 --> 00:08:03.620 That leaves us with two key questions. Who was profiting from these trades, 00:08:03.640 --> 00:08:06.840 and why was no one ever indicted for participating in them? 00:08:08.100 --> 00:08:12.180 Now, hopefully you are familiar with the story of the 9-11 terror trade, 00:08:12.280 --> 00:08:14.520 but if not, I have an essay for you. 00:08:14.660 --> 00:08:19.600 It's called The 9-11 Terror Trade, and it is contained in my collection of Essays Reportage, 00:08:19.740 --> 00:08:24.360 Essays on the New World Order, available in paperback and hardcover and audiobook 00:08:24.360 --> 00:08:30.840 and ebook at reportagebook.com and wherever fine books are sold, until they're not. 00:08:31.040 --> 00:08:37.420 But yes, suffice it to say, there is a lengthy and voluminous history of inside 00:08:37.420 --> 00:08:43.880 information being used in the past to profit through inside trading and trading 00:08:43.880 --> 00:08:45.780 on advanced knowledge of various events. 00:08:45.780 --> 00:08:49.780 And of course, that predates 9-11. It postdates 9-11. 00:08:50.420 --> 00:08:55.680 But that is just one obvious example that should, I assume, be familiar to most 00:08:55.680 --> 00:08:56.840 Corbett Report listeners. 00:08:57.180 --> 00:09:03.280 But now, well, inside advanced information trading comes with a new technological twist. 00:09:03.460 --> 00:09:07.920 It's called Polymarket. And yes, you have probably heard of Polymarket by now, 00:09:08.020 --> 00:09:10.140 but do you know what it is and how it functions? 00:09:10.540 --> 00:09:14.940 Well, if not, I have a handy dandy explainer for you. It is called How to Make 00:09:14.940 --> 00:09:18.360 a Fortune on Regime Change. It's an editorial that I wrote 00:09:18.710 --> 00:09:22.290 earlier this year, specifically in January of this year. 00:09:22.590 --> 00:09:26.930 And it is, of course, available up on corbettreport.com. And like all my editorials, 00:09:26.990 --> 00:09:29.050 it's also available up on my sub stack. 00:09:29.310 --> 00:09:33.710 And when and if you go and read through it, you'll find this information about 00:09:33.710 --> 00:09:35.370 Polymarket and how it works. 00:09:35.570 --> 00:09:39.970 I write, if you drill down on Polymarket's documentation, you can learn how this all works. 00:09:40.210 --> 00:09:46.170 Specifically, on Polymarket, you can buy and sell shares representing future event outcomes. 00:09:46.310 --> 00:09:48.930 For example, will TikTok be banned in the US this year? 00:09:49.250 --> 00:09:55.470 Shares in event outcomes are always priced between zero and one USDC. 00:09:55.470 --> 00:10:02.730 That is the Ethereum-based stablecoin that's supposedly backed by actual US dollar reserves. 00:10:02.930 --> 00:10:07.770 And every pair of event outcomes, for example, each pair of yes and no shares 00:10:07.770 --> 00:10:10.750 is fully collateralized by one USDC. 00:10:11.150 --> 00:10:15.190 Shares are created when opposing sides come to an agreement on odds such that 00:10:15.190 --> 00:10:18.630 the sum of what each side is willing to pay is equal to $1. 00:10:19.480 --> 00:10:24.940 Okay, that might make perfect sense to people who are familiar with these types of prediction markets. 00:10:25.080 --> 00:10:27.560 That might make no sense to people who are not. 00:10:27.720 --> 00:10:31.160 So perhaps the best way to get your handle on it is to look at an actual specific 00:10:31.160 --> 00:10:35.420 example. For example, will Jesus Christ return before 2027? 00:10:35.860 --> 00:10:43.280 And if you go to polymarket.com, you can place your bet on this particular outcome. 00:10:43.520 --> 00:10:47.520 Interestingly, it seems to have stabilized at a certain rate. 00:10:47.520 --> 00:10:52.300 I guess there is about a 4% chance that Jesus is going to return according to 00:10:52.300 --> 00:10:55.800 the, well, the collective wisdom of the Polymarket users. 00:10:56.040 --> 00:10:59.200 And so, again, we can visually see how this works if you're watching the video 00:10:59.200 --> 00:11:03.460 version of this podcast. You can see that the yes bet is currently 3.9 cents 00:11:03.460 --> 00:11:05.520 and the no bet is 96.2 cents. 00:11:05.620 --> 00:11:12.400 So what that means is, let's say that you make a $100 bet on this particular 00:11:12.400 --> 00:11:16.160 event. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? And you say yes. 00:11:16.340 --> 00:11:20.020 And if Jesus Christ returns before 2027 then 00:11:20.020 --> 00:11:25.300 the yes side will get paid out and if it is at this 3.9 cent when the market 00:11:25.300 --> 00:11:29.340 is finally resolved and it pays out then that means in your 100 bet you're going 00:11:29.340 --> 00:11:35.860 to receive the 96.20 that represents the share of the other side that is what 00:11:35.860 --> 00:11:37.840 the what the market looks like. 00:11:38.460 --> 00:11:42.580 And if you are so inclined, you can go through and start signing up and setting 00:11:42.580 --> 00:11:46.320 up your account and getting involved and playing with the markets as you will. 00:11:46.440 --> 00:11:51.220 But I have some reservations about such activity that I'll get into later in this episode. 00:11:51.460 --> 00:11:54.660 Anyway, as I go on to say, well, how is it resolved? 00:11:54.840 --> 00:11:58.100 I mean, I suppose, will Jesus Christ return before 2027? 00:11:58.280 --> 00:12:02.720 I'd like to think that most people would be aware of that fact if it did resolve. 00:12:02.720 --> 00:12:04.440 And yes, Jesus Christ did return. 00:12:04.880 --> 00:12:08.480 Or if he did not return. I suppose there could be some room for dispute, 00:12:08.480 --> 00:12:11.900 which actually leads to the question, how are these markets resolved? 00:12:12.180 --> 00:12:16.020 Who decides what the outcome of some of these bets actually is? 00:12:16.220 --> 00:12:21.540 Well, when the market is resolved, that is when UMA Optimistic Oracle, 00:12:21.820 --> 00:12:26.640 a smart contract based optimistic Oracle, decides that there is a determinative 00:12:26.640 --> 00:12:28.300 outcome to the event being gabbled on. 00:12:28.460 --> 00:12:33.220 The winnings are paid out in USDC, the Ethereum stable coin supposedly backed by US dollars. 00:12:33.920 --> 00:12:38.380 And yes, if you click through on that, you're going to find a link to an article 00:12:38.380 --> 00:12:45.100 explaining what UMA Oracle is, which to cut to the chase says that UMA, 00:12:45.460 --> 00:12:50.120 short for Universal Market Access, is an optimistic Oracle built by Risk Labs. 00:12:50.360 --> 00:12:55.860 It lets smart contracts request and receive off-chain data by verifying real-world 00:12:55.860 --> 00:13:00.840 outcomes through a request-propose-dispute cycle. 00:13:00.840 --> 00:13:05.840 It's called optimistic because statements are assumed valid unless challenged. 00:13:06.120 --> 00:13:09.960 Okay. So if somebody says something, well, it has to be challenged. 00:13:10.260 --> 00:13:12.380 Otherwise, it will just be assumed to be true. 00:13:12.820 --> 00:13:18.540 And UMA uses the shelling point principle. Independent voters are motivated to report the truth. 00:13:19.180 --> 00:13:23.380 Because they expect others to do the same. It operates on the golden rule, guys. 00:13:23.580 --> 00:13:27.680 What could possibly go wrong? All right. So that, again, there's a lot to dive 00:13:27.680 --> 00:13:32.360 into with regards to that, but let's move on to some of the interesting connections 00:13:32.360 --> 00:13:35.080 behind this Polymarket idea and where it comes from. 00:13:36.000 --> 00:13:39.360 As I go on to write, what's more, Polymarket likes to brag that the counterparty 00:13:39.360 --> 00:13:42.740 to each trade is another Polymarket user, meaning that shares can be sold before 00:13:42.740 --> 00:13:47.420 the market is resolved and that unlike sports books, there's no house to ban 00:13:47.420 --> 00:13:48.680 you for winning too much. 00:13:49.340 --> 00:13:53.100 And why would the house ban you for winning too much? Because perhaps you're 00:13:53.100 --> 00:13:54.400 cheating in some way, right? 00:13:55.080 --> 00:13:57.520 Well, this all sounds completely above board and legitimate. 00:13:57.720 --> 00:13:59.560 What could possibly go wrong? Oh, 00:14:00.220 --> 00:14:05.320 That's right. Peter Thiel. Yes. As it turns out, Peter Thiel's founders fund 00:14:05.320 --> 00:14:10.720 helped lead a $200 million funding round for Polymarket last June. 00:14:11.200 --> 00:14:16.200 And as I go on to explain, if you don't know why that is something to be concerned about, 00:14:16.340 --> 00:14:20.720 then you don't know about the strange story of Peter Thiel or Antichrist or 00:14:20.720 --> 00:14:24.940 Armageddon or the Ian Davis exposes the technocratic dark state conversation 00:14:24.940 --> 00:14:30.000 or other things that I've done on Thiel and his connections in the past. But it gets even worse. 00:14:30.220 --> 00:14:33.620 Yes, as I write here, Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr. 00:14:34.100 --> 00:14:42.340 As an advisor last August after his 1789 Capital VC fund made a sizable investment in the company. 00:14:42.540 --> 00:14:49.100 So not only is Polymarket backed by Peter Thiel and that blood drinking vampire, 00:14:49.320 --> 00:14:51.400 but also by Donald Trump Jr. 00:14:51.400 --> 00:14:56.920 So, yes, you literally have the president's son invested in this polymarket 00:14:56.920 --> 00:15:02.700 that is now being used to bet on various world events based on inside information 00:15:02.700 --> 00:15:04.100 that could come from, oh, I don't know, 00:15:04.320 --> 00:15:06.980 maybe the president or people around him. Interesting. 00:15:07.500 --> 00:15:12.120 So I think you're starting to get a sense of why this might not be a good idea. 00:15:12.120 --> 00:15:16.120 And there are even more layers to that, because although there are some very 00:15:16.120 --> 00:15:19.540 obvious reasons why this might be a bad idea, there are some less obvious ones 00:15:19.540 --> 00:15:20.500 that we're going to get into. 00:15:20.500 --> 00:15:24.720 But let's start by committing the genetic fallacy and asking, 00:15:24.960 --> 00:15:29.600 where does this idea, this polymarket idea, come from? 00:15:29.620 --> 00:15:33.860 Because as you may or may not be surprised to learn, it did not spring fully 00:15:33.860 --> 00:15:36.580 formed from the head of Peter Thiel or Donald Trump Jr. 00:15:36.840 --> 00:15:43.080 No, this idea goes back at least a couple of decades and it has a surprising origin. 00:15:43.640 --> 00:15:48.040 Oh, wait, it's not surprising at all. It's DARPA. It comes from DARPA. 00:15:48.880 --> 00:15:55.100 In three days, there will become operative on the internet, stemming from the 00:15:55.100 --> 00:16:01.740 site of DARPA in the Department of Defense, something called the futures market. 00:16:01.940 --> 00:16:03.980 It's a futures market. 00:16:05.150 --> 00:16:09.730 To predict future events in the Middle East. And the basis of it is apparently 00:16:09.730 --> 00:16:12.830 the Department of Defense believes, as they say when you read this when you 00:16:12.830 --> 00:16:16.730 go to the website, they believe that having the market system, 00:16:16.890 --> 00:16:18.450 people in the market system, 00:16:18.950 --> 00:16:23.550 betting or buying and selling futures contracts, they will be able to develop 00:16:23.550 --> 00:16:27.650 information about what might or might not happen in the Middle East in the future. 00:16:27.850 --> 00:16:33.990 So they're going to develop a program, and that program will buy and sell with 00:16:33.990 --> 00:16:38.090 individual investors futures contracts on a wide range of issues. 00:16:38.910 --> 00:16:45.390 And this is effectively a plan to bet on what might or might not happen in the Middle East. 00:16:45.610 --> 00:16:49.950 This betting parlor on the Internet will include wagers, for example, 00:16:50.070 --> 00:16:55.090 as the examples on the Internet site put up by the Department of Defense would 00:16:55.090 --> 00:16:58.210 include, will Mr. Arafat be assassinated? 00:16:58.870 --> 00:17:00.690 Will there be missile attacks from 00:17:00.690 --> 00:17:04.710 North Korea? Will the King of Jordan be overthrown, just as an example? 00:17:05.770 --> 00:17:11.990 And it will become effectively an internet casino so that individual investors 00:17:11.990 --> 00:17:14.810 can make bets on future events in the Middle East. 00:17:15.010 --> 00:17:18.250 And those predictive bets will then give intelligence, presumably, 00:17:18.530 --> 00:17:20.350 to the Department of Defense. 00:17:21.790 --> 00:17:27.970 Yes, DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. And to my long-term 00:17:27.970 --> 00:17:35.450 listeners, I think it will come as no surprise that this idea has its genesis in DARPA. But... 00:17:35.720 --> 00:17:39.280 There are always new people tuning into The Corbett Report, so if you are unfamiliar 00:17:39.280 --> 00:17:46.340 with DARPA and the crazy and Orwellian and totalitarian ideas that it has been 00:17:46.340 --> 00:17:47.420 involved in over the years, 00:17:47.620 --> 00:17:53.800 I would highly suggest you check out Corbett Report Radio episode 265 on DARPA Exposed, 00:17:54.000 --> 00:17:58.880 where I go through the history of that organization and some of the crazy things 00:17:58.880 --> 00:18:01.360 and schemes that it has been a part of over the years. 00:18:01.620 --> 00:18:04.980 But yes, DARPA. And for those who do not know, 00:18:05.120 --> 00:18:11.540 that was a press conference that was delivered by Senators Ron Wyden and Byron 00:18:11.540 --> 00:18:14.620 Dorgan back in July of 2003, 00:18:14.620 --> 00:18:20.460 when they were first announcing to the public the existence of this policy analysis 00:18:20.460 --> 00:18:25.560 market that DARPA was putting together and pointing out some of the reasons 00:18:25.560 --> 00:18:27.700 why it might be a bad idea, 00:18:27.940 --> 00:18:33.160 which should be, I think, I'm going to go out on a limb and say fairly intuitive. 00:18:33.400 --> 00:18:39.880 I think at the very least, everyone shares the ick factor about an idea like 00:18:39.880 --> 00:18:44.100 this, literally betting on deaths, assassinations, bombings, 00:18:44.280 --> 00:18:48.360 regime change, war, etc., bloodshed and violence of various sorts. 00:18:48.540 --> 00:18:50.840 There is an inherent ick factor to that. 00:18:51.080 --> 00:18:55.960 And we don't have to go too much on a speculative limb to say that because as 00:18:55.960 --> 00:18:59.700 one result of that press conference that we were just watching that clip from. 00:18:59.880 --> 00:19:05.520 That very same day, the policy analysis market was discontinued. 00:19:05.600 --> 00:19:07.140 The program was scrapped. 00:19:07.340 --> 00:19:12.720 And shortly thereafter, the then head of DARPA, Admiral Poindexter. 00:19:12.980 --> 00:19:18.160 Yes, the same Iran-Contra criminal Poindexter, who also has a part to play in 00:19:18.160 --> 00:19:20.120 the story of the creation of Palantir, 00:19:21.040 --> 00:19:25.920 Poindexter was forced to resign his position as head of DARPA as a result of that scandal. 00:19:26.040 --> 00:19:29.880 So yes, I think people were generally feeling that ick that was, 00:19:29.980 --> 00:19:34.320 again, articulated by Drogon and Wyden in that press conference. 00:19:35.960 --> 00:19:41.380 I think this is unbelievably stupid. It's not only, it is, well, 00:19:41.380 --> 00:19:45.220 that is a gentle thing to say about a program that is so devoid of value. 00:19:45.460 --> 00:19:48.820 It combines the worst of all of our instincts, in my judgment. 00:19:49.120 --> 00:19:53.980 It is a tragic waste of taxpayers' money. It will be offensive to almost everyone. 00:19:54.280 --> 00:19:58.660 Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlor so that people could 00:19:58.660 --> 00:20:01.220 go in and, and it's sponsored by the government itself. 00:20:01.420 --> 00:20:06.560 People could go in and bet on the assassination of an American political figure 00:20:06.560 --> 00:20:10.900 or the overthrow of this institution or that institution. 00:20:11.020 --> 00:20:15.420 It is terribly wasteful in terms of wasting money. It is offensive. 00:20:18.180 --> 00:20:23.440 Yes, stupid, offensive, a waste of taxpayer money, all of the above and more. 00:20:23.680 --> 00:20:27.280 But as I say, I think that fundamental ick factor that comes along with the 00:20:27.280 --> 00:20:32.380 idea of literally placing bets on real world events of violence and bloodshed 00:20:32.380 --> 00:20:38.300 is just inherently distasteful to the average person. And that doesn't need much explanation. 00:20:38.820 --> 00:20:44.240 But, of course, the idea of prediction markets, there are a number of layers to this onion. 00:20:44.260 --> 00:20:47.620 And this is the Corbett Report. We don't stop at the outside layer, 00:20:47.760 --> 00:20:52.080 just that ick feeling that people get from this. No, let's let's dive a little bit deeper. 00:20:52.460 --> 00:20:56.620 And to their credit, I think Wyden and Drogon also articulated the next layer 00:20:56.620 --> 00:21:00.860 of this onion in their press conference when they pointed out another very bad 00:21:00.860 --> 00:21:03.020 thing that can happen with these types of prediction markets, 00:21:03.200 --> 00:21:06.800 which is that they, by their very nature, actually. 00:21:08.240 --> 00:21:15.120 Incentivize, monetarily incentivize terrorists to go out and commit spectacular acts of terrorism. 00:21:16.460 --> 00:21:21.360 The policy analysis market website, and this is an important point, 00:21:22.060 --> 00:21:29.020 says that all you have to do to become a trader is to create a user name and put your money down. 00:21:29.480 --> 00:21:36.020 So it seems that terrorists, even, may be able to be protected as they plan. 00:21:36.820 --> 00:21:41.340 The website assures bettors that DARPA is not going to have access to their 00:21:41.340 --> 00:21:43.520 identities or their funds. 00:21:43.940 --> 00:21:47.460 But we don't know the details. Maybe somebody else is going to get it, 00:21:47.580 --> 00:21:49.080 but it's not evident here. 00:21:49.400 --> 00:21:54.580 So the question is, why wouldn't terrorists just hop online and start betting 00:21:54.580 --> 00:21:59.140 if they could either mislead American authorities about their plans or make 00:21:59.140 --> 00:22:02.000 money to fund more al-Qaeda operations. 00:22:03.460 --> 00:22:08.820 Yes, why wouldn't terrorists hop online and start betting on their terror attacks? 00:22:09.060 --> 00:22:13.120 Good question. But it does lead to a further question, who are the terrorists? 00:22:13.360 --> 00:22:19.100 Because although Senator Wyden is pointing the finger at those dastardly turban-wearing, 00:22:19.360 --> 00:22:22.620 beard-sporting boogeymen in al-Qaeda, well, 00:22:22.860 --> 00:22:26.940 I think the Corbett reporteers in the crowd and others in the conspiracy reality 00:22:26.940 --> 00:22:29.380 community will be better situated to understand that, 00:22:29.540 --> 00:22:34.800 well, We should also be concerned about the Alcieta terrorists and the money 00:22:34.800 --> 00:22:40.080 that they could be making betting on their own spectacular terror events of various sorts. 00:22:41.400 --> 00:22:46.860 Just to concentrate on the financial motivation that terrorists would have in 00:22:46.860 --> 00:22:52.280 betting on events that they were involved in, or servicemen, 00:22:52.480 --> 00:22:54.580 another type of terrorist, 00:22:55.040 --> 00:22:58.240 betting on the things that they've learned from their classified briefings, 00:22:58.340 --> 00:23:00.840 etc. It's not just a passive activity. 00:23:01.000 --> 00:23:07.120 So let's go down another layer of the onion, because again, not only are the terrorists and U.S. 00:23:07.240 --> 00:23:11.640 Servicemen, but I repeat myself, incentivized to bet on things that they know 00:23:11.640 --> 00:23:14.880 about, things that they've heard about, information that they have learned, 00:23:15.060 --> 00:23:20.280 they are incentivized to make spectacular and unexpected events happen. 00:23:20.520 --> 00:23:25.980 We saw a relatively benign version of that earlier in this episode with that 00:23:25.980 --> 00:23:29.240 weather data tampering at the Charles de Gaulle airport. 00:23:29.500 --> 00:23:32.800 Okay, so it seems, and nothing has been proven yet in a court of law, 00:23:32.900 --> 00:23:38.220 but it seems that some person or persons have engaged in some sort of conspiracy 00:23:38.220 --> 00:23:43.340 to manipulate the temperature data at Charles de Gaulle Airport because they 00:23:43.340 --> 00:23:49.260 could then place a bet on a sudden anomalous record-breaking spike in temperature 00:23:49.260 --> 00:23:51.740 at that particular airport that lo and behold, 00:23:51.900 --> 00:23:54.200 wow, it took place. And here's the data to prove it. 00:23:54.720 --> 00:23:58.740 So think about what happened in that instance. This isn't people just passively 00:23:58.740 --> 00:24:01.320 learning about some sort of event that was going to happen. 00:24:01.440 --> 00:24:05.600 They didn't just find out there was going to be some sort of anomalous event, 00:24:05.980 --> 00:24:09.460 spike in temperatures at Charles de Gaulle airport next week. 00:24:09.580 --> 00:24:13.820 No, they went out and made that happen specifically to make money from it. 00:24:13.920 --> 00:24:17.980 And in the event of weather data tampering at a single airport for a single 00:24:17.980 --> 00:24:22.520 day, perhaps it isn't the end of the world, but it doesn't take much imagination 00:24:22.520 --> 00:24:27.260 to see how this could be used in, well, world ending scenarios. 00:24:27.660 --> 00:24:30.140 For example, we have this from Wall Street Journal recently, 00:24:30.140 --> 00:24:35.320 Polymarket removes betting market on nuclear detonation. 00:24:36.010 --> 00:24:40.290 So once again, you can read the details of this story and the market that did 00:24:40.290 --> 00:24:44.330 spring into existence and was being actively bet on with something like a quarter 00:24:44.330 --> 00:24:48.690 of a million dollars of bets already in place before the market was shut down, 00:24:49.250 --> 00:24:52.430 betting on the likelihood of nuclear detonation as, of course, 00:24:52.530 --> 00:24:54.590 things start to ramp up between the U.S. 00:24:54.710 --> 00:24:59.730 And Israel and Iran. And obviously the threat of nuclear annihilation is growing. 00:24:59.930 --> 00:25:03.210 But again, think about the added danger of having 00:25:03.210 --> 00:25:08.410 a poly market or Calci or one of these other prediction markets in place to 00:25:08.410 --> 00:25:15.170 literally incentivize such an event to happen because the surprising and the 00:25:15.170 --> 00:25:20.630 most catastrophic outcome will always be the one that is on the winning side of such bets. 00:25:20.630 --> 00:25:25.090 It is, of course, extremely unlikely that such and such an event like a nuclear 00:25:25.090 --> 00:25:30.970 detonation will take place in June unless and when it does happen, 00:25:31.110 --> 00:25:34.990 you will win a lot of money, especially if you were in a position to make such 00:25:34.990 --> 00:25:37.470 a thing happen. Like, I don't know if you're Donald Trump Jr. 00:25:37.770 --> 00:25:43.070 And your father is the president of the United States sitting there with the nuclear football. Hmm. 00:25:43.590 --> 00:25:48.290 There might be some conflict of interest here and maybe some actual incentivization 00:25:48.290 --> 00:25:52.910 to make such an event happen that otherwise would not. 00:25:53.050 --> 00:25:58.630 That is one of the reasons that we should be very concerned about these prediction 00:25:58.630 --> 00:26:00.210 markets and where they're going. 00:26:00.860 --> 00:26:07.320 But wait, it gets even worse. Yes, let's go down to another layer of this onion 00:26:07.320 --> 00:26:11.860 because although I think a lot of people have caught on to the idea that prediction 00:26:11.860 --> 00:26:15.800 markets are bad for a number of reasons, not only the ick factor of betting on death, 00:26:16.060 --> 00:26:20.300 not only the incentivization of literally the money, 00:26:20.540 --> 00:26:25.640 the monetary reward for people using their inside information to bet on death, 00:26:25.700 --> 00:26:31.260 but actually to incentivize people to commit spectacular acts of terrorism and 00:26:31.260 --> 00:26:33.300 violence in order to profit from them. 00:26:33.420 --> 00:26:36.560 But it's also even worse. 00:26:36.760 --> 00:26:41.300 And we can get an inkling of that from an article like this one from Fortune. 00:26:41.740 --> 00:26:45.080 Kalshi and Polymarket are racing to ban insider trading. 00:26:45.300 --> 00:26:50.180 The economist who built the theory behind prediction markets says it's the whole point. 00:26:50.340 --> 00:26:56.620 Yes, this whole thing is to yield insider trading, advanced knowledge trading. 00:26:56.840 --> 00:27:00.280 Why is that? Well, if you read on into this article, you'll find that under 00:27:00.280 --> 00:27:04.520 mounting pressure, Kalshi and Polymarket have rolled out new restrictions barring 00:27:04.520 --> 00:27:06.600 politicians from trading on their own campaigns. 00:27:07.160 --> 00:27:11.280 Athletes from trading in their own leagues, and employees from trading on contracts 00:27:11.280 --> 00:27:12.880 tied to their employers. 00:27:13.080 --> 00:27:17.460 But Robin Hanson, who's been making the intellectual case for prediction markets 00:27:17.460 --> 00:27:20.300 for nearly 40 years, says this is all wrong. 00:27:20.540 --> 00:27:25.520 You want them trading. Hansen, a professor at George Mason University who helped 00:27:25.520 --> 00:27:28.480 develop the market scoring rule used by many prediction markets, 00:27:28.600 --> 00:27:32.220 said of insiders, you want the most accurate prices. 00:27:32.460 --> 00:27:36.260 That's pretty clear. The purpose of the market is to inform decisions. 00:27:37.730 --> 00:27:43.290 Well, I hope you understand what this Robin Hansen is saying there. 00:27:43.430 --> 00:27:47.630 I hope you understand the significance of this. Yes, the point of these prediction 00:27:47.630 --> 00:27:53.250 markets is to signal information about coming events. That's what these are for. 00:27:53.450 --> 00:27:57.670 In fact, that was explicitly, if you go back and read the policy analysis market 00:27:57.670 --> 00:28:02.230 materials and documents that I have linked up in my How to Make a Fortune on 00:28:02.230 --> 00:28:03.650 Regime Change editorial, 00:28:03.950 --> 00:28:07.330 you'll find that was specifically what DARPA, the reason why DARPA, 00:28:07.430 --> 00:28:10.650 or at least the ostensible reason why DARPA was putting the PAM, 00:28:10.770 --> 00:28:13.690 the policy analysis market into place in the first place. 00:28:13.690 --> 00:28:18.830 It was so that their policy analysts could look at the markets and the way they 00:28:18.830 --> 00:28:24.490 were trading and have a more informed perspective on the likelihood of such and such an event, 00:28:24.490 --> 00:28:29.010 because they would be able to see all the market participants who are placing bets. 00:28:29.190 --> 00:28:32.530 Yes, that's one way to look at it, but signaling information. 00:28:32.850 --> 00:28:36.850 That is what the market is doing. It is signaling information. 00:28:37.070 --> 00:28:41.710 And it's specifically, as Robin Hanson says, it's designed so that insiders 00:28:41.710 --> 00:28:46.190 with inside information can signal their advanced knowledge through the market, 00:28:46.570 --> 00:28:47.550 through the betting mechanism. 00:28:47.750 --> 00:28:51.470 And when you see a sudden run up in prices or situated around a certain event, 00:28:51.650 --> 00:28:55.650 you will know, oh, OK, so there is there's something in the offing there and 00:28:55.650 --> 00:29:00.610 there's some plan out there that people are working on. That is the point of such a market. 00:29:01.430 --> 00:29:06.790 But the next layer of the onion is once you realize that and once people start 00:29:06.790 --> 00:29:09.310 looking at that, then of course, 00:29:09.810 --> 00:29:15.410 as DARPA was talking about in their original policy and analysis market documents, 00:29:15.550 --> 00:29:20.950 and as the people are talking about Polymarket and Calci and these other prediction markets are noting, 00:29:21.190 --> 00:29:27.370 yes, the point is to start using this as a tool for more accurately understanding 00:29:27.370 --> 00:29:31.710 and predicting future events so that we can see where things are going. 00:29:32.300 --> 00:29:35.920 But once people start doing that and they start noticing, oh, 00:29:36.040 --> 00:29:40.220 OK, oh, there's a look, look at this market that just came up on whatever the 00:29:40.220 --> 00:29:45.280 case may be, a nuclear detonation on June 25th or whatever the case is. 00:29:46.160 --> 00:29:51.040 Oh, OK. So now we know there's some sort of there's some sort of plot. 00:29:51.220 --> 00:29:53.440 Somebody's got some idea. There's something going on. 00:29:53.720 --> 00:29:58.260 And of course, the fairy tale version of this is the government loves and cares 00:29:58.260 --> 00:30:02.160 about you and is watching over you. So DARPA or whoever else are keeping their 00:30:02.160 --> 00:30:06.560 eye on such things so that they can find out about these devious plots as they're taking place. 00:30:07.180 --> 00:30:12.600 Imagine if they were doing this, say, prior to 9-11 and they noticed the unprecedented, 00:30:12.820 --> 00:30:16.840 unusual activity in the options markets pre-9-11 and put two and two together 00:30:16.840 --> 00:30:19.640 and realized, oh, there's some sort of attack in the offing. 00:30:20.000 --> 00:30:24.160 Now, of course, in conspiracy reality, we know that these government agencies 00:30:24.160 --> 00:30:28.520 are not there to swaddle you in their loving arms and protect you from cradle to grave. 00:30:28.520 --> 00:30:34.200 They are there to, at the very best, use you and fleece you as the taxpaying tax cattle, 00:30:34.440 --> 00:30:39.700 but more realistically, to put you into the maws of the technocratic enslavement 00:30:39.700 --> 00:30:43.980 state and to either keep you there forever or depopulate you or turn you into 00:30:43.980 --> 00:30:44.840 a transhuman nightmare. 00:30:45.160 --> 00:30:50.300 Anyway, on that positive note, yes, so we should not be relying on, 00:30:50.700 --> 00:30:54.540 oh, well, government agencies will use these prediction markets to better head 00:30:54.540 --> 00:30:59.040 off security threats before they come to pass. No, of course, 00:30:59.120 --> 00:30:59.900 that's not what it's for. 00:31:00.040 --> 00:31:06.620 But it does raise another interesting point, and that is that we know that the 00:31:06.620 --> 00:31:13.920 conspiracy conspirators involved in this conspiracy reality are not solely conspirators. 00:31:14.430 --> 00:31:19.150 Perhaps not even primarily motivated by monetary concerns, as anyone worth their 00:31:19.150 --> 00:31:23.450 salt knows, the banksters, et cetera, literally print the money out of thin 00:31:23.450 --> 00:31:25.550 air, as it is sometimes portrayed. 00:31:25.950 --> 00:31:30.610 The money itself is not what is important. What is important is the power that 00:31:30.610 --> 00:31:36.770 comes from having the possession of that economic monetary resource and the 00:31:36.770 --> 00:31:39.410 power that can be wielded with that. 00:31:39.850 --> 00:31:48.890 And so if you could spend a bunch of money to, for example, give out some misinformation 00:31:48.890 --> 00:31:54.510 that will then be picked up by people who are looking at predictions markets, wouldn't you do so? 00:31:54.650 --> 00:31:57.130 And yes, so we've arrived at the bottom layer of this onion, 00:31:57.310 --> 00:32:01.790 which is that eventually, once people have been habituated to this idea, 00:32:01.910 --> 00:32:06.030 which is, as you see, is now spilling out in all of the mainstream news feeds 00:32:06.030 --> 00:32:07.310 everybody's talking about. 00:32:07.430 --> 00:32:13.030 For example, this U.S. Special Forces officer who was apparently betting on insider information. 00:32:13.030 --> 00:32:17.630 Once that becomes part of the cultural conversation, once people understand 00:32:17.630 --> 00:32:23.450 what is happening, more people will start looking to these prediction markets to see what is coming. 00:32:23.930 --> 00:32:28.970 And in that context, it becomes a lot easier to mislead people, 00:32:29.230 --> 00:32:34.710 misinform people, send people down rabbit trails to nowhere in with. 00:32:35.340 --> 00:32:40.900 Well-placed bet and a bit of maybe mainstream, maybe mainstream alternative 00:32:40.900 --> 00:32:42.860 attention on a particular bet. 00:32:43.020 --> 00:32:47.020 People can be looking this way where the real action is happening the other way. 00:32:47.180 --> 00:32:51.860 So what am I talking about? Well, again, we don't have to use our imagination. 00:32:52.940 --> 00:32:55.520 Too deeply here to understand how this could be used. 00:32:56.380 --> 00:32:59.340 I mean, on the geopolitical level, for example, 00:32:59.540 --> 00:33:06.660 the military planners of the war machine could ramp up sudden speculation about 00:33:06.660 --> 00:33:12.100 Chinese invasion of Taiwan or something along those lines and get everyone to focus on that. 00:33:12.300 --> 00:33:16.540 Meanwhile, they're planning the next stage of their Ukraine-Russia operation 00:33:16.540 --> 00:33:18.020 or something along those lines. 00:33:18.160 --> 00:33:21.040 So there's that sort of grand geopolitical strategy. 00:33:21.160 --> 00:33:25.300 But it could be something that's specifically designed to target the conspiracy 00:33:25.300 --> 00:33:28.860 realists in the crowd who know about these types of things, know about, 00:33:29.020 --> 00:33:31.560 for example, the story of the 9-11 terror trade, and know, well, 00:33:31.660 --> 00:33:35.480 oh, we can use these prediction markets to see what the next false flag might be. 00:33:35.800 --> 00:33:40.960 And there, they, of course, could use that as a signal that will keep people 00:33:40.960 --> 00:33:43.520 chasing down the wrong rabbit trail to nowhere. 00:33:43.940 --> 00:33:48.180 And if people don't understand how that works, you might remember Operation 00:33:48.180 --> 00:33:53.400 Blackjack that floated around the independent alternative media 15 years ago or so. 00:33:53.400 --> 00:33:57.600 So if you don't remember that, I'll throw in a link that will help explain that 00:33:57.600 --> 00:33:59.340 story to you. But yes, there. 00:33:59.920 --> 00:34:03.840 Oh, my God, there's going to be a terror attack and it's going to be a nuclear 00:34:03.840 --> 00:34:08.440 terror attack. And we know that it's a nuclear false flag terror attack specifically. 00:34:08.440 --> 00:34:13.800 We know this because it's in a cartoon that's being published in the newspaper. What? 00:34:14.440 --> 00:34:19.160 Anyway, that was apparently what it took 15 years ago to send lots of people 00:34:19.160 --> 00:34:21.820 down a false rabbit trail to nowhere. 00:34:22.450 --> 00:34:26.510 That got them frothing at the mouth and looking like crazies to the people who 00:34:26.510 --> 00:34:30.470 are still credulous and trusting of the establishment media. 00:34:30.610 --> 00:34:34.450 But how much more effective will it be when suddenly, oh, my God, 00:34:34.610 --> 00:34:39.330 did you see the new poly market bet on a nuclear explosion on such and such 00:34:39.330 --> 00:34:43.110 a date or the assassination of Trump or something like that on such and such 00:34:43.110 --> 00:34:45.150 a date? Oh, well, now we know. 00:34:45.330 --> 00:34:50.710 Now we know what's happening and we can delve into that. It's QAnon on steroids at that point. 00:34:50.710 --> 00:34:57.730 So not only can polymarket be used, obviously, to monetarily benefit terrorists 00:34:57.730 --> 00:35:02.690 of various sorts, but it can also be used to signal false information and lead 00:35:02.690 --> 00:35:04.770 people down false paths. 00:35:05.070 --> 00:35:11.030 So there's a lot of reasons why you should be very, very skeptical about this 00:35:11.030 --> 00:35:15.950 whole polymarket idea and where it's going and what is happening as a result of it. 00:35:16.700 --> 00:35:22.640 But having said that, happy betting, everyone. Go, go, go on Polymarket or Kalshi 00:35:22.640 --> 00:35:25.980 or one of these prediction markets today and start placing your bets. 00:35:27.100 --> 00:35:31.180 No, of course, I am not advocating that. In fact, I would say that if you are 00:35:31.180 --> 00:35:36.820 getting sucked into this online casino in which you're not just betting on the 00:35:36.820 --> 00:35:40.860 spinning of a ball on a roulette table, you are betting on literal life and death. 00:35:41.080 --> 00:35:46.020 Well, not only are you going to be the sucker because you will always be the least informed person. 00:35:46.180 --> 00:35:49.060 Unless you're involved in one of these plots, you will be the least informed 00:35:49.060 --> 00:35:56.540 person at the table and will be easily misled and will probably lose your money very quickly. 00:35:56.700 --> 00:36:02.240 But more to the point, you are participating in this activity that is literally 00:36:02.240 --> 00:36:05.740 incentivizing murder, mayhem, and bloodshed. 00:36:05.980 --> 00:36:08.220 And I don't know about you, I don't want any part of it. 00:36:08.600 --> 00:36:13.540 But as always, I'm interested in your information, your take on this. 00:36:13.820 --> 00:36:17.920 And as a result, I would like to call on the Corbett Report members to go to 00:36:17.920 --> 00:36:21.480 CorbettReport.com/Polymarket, where you will not only be able to find 00:36:21.480 --> 00:36:24.840 the complete hyperlinked transcript of everything I've talked about today, 00:36:25.060 --> 00:36:28.140 all of the links to all of the sources that we've looked at today, 00:36:28.180 --> 00:36:34.220 but also to participate in the comment section where you can deliberate with 00:36:34.220 --> 00:36:39.320 other informed Corbett reporteers about this information and about what Polymarket 00:36:39.320 --> 00:36:43.260 it is or Kalshi or any of these online prediction markets and how you think they 00:36:43.260 --> 00:36:46.140 are being used, abused, or misused. 00:36:46.880 --> 00:36:50.200 But on that note, I think we're going to leave today's exploration there for 00:36:50.200 --> 00:36:52.900 today. Thank you for investing your mind time in the Corbett Report. 00:36:53.180 --> 00:36:57.920 I am James Corbett of CorbettReport.com. Looking forward to talking to you again in the near future. 00:37:00.850 --> 00:37:11.870 The deep state, false flags, 9-11 truth, the Federal Reserve, 00:37:12.630 --> 00:37:15.750 secret wars and hidden histories, 00:37:18.470 --> 00:37:23.090 fake news, medical martial law, ceaseless propaganda. 00:37:25.750 --> 00:37:34.170 James Corbett Repertage Essays on the New World Order Available where books 00:37:34.170 --> 00:37:36.690 are sold Until they're not.