How to Bet on Absolutely Anything

07/29/201815 Comments

So, you know how decentralized technologies are making it possible to do things that were completely impossible before? Like creating uncensorable information storage and retrieval networks or circumventing the gun laws of the would-be tyrants?

Well, how about if these technologies could also allow you to bet on anything? And I mean anything.

Doesn't sound so amazing? Well, what if we're not talking about placing a bet on the outcome of the next Super Bowl, but the time and location of the next terror attack? Or the likelihood of the President of the United States being assassinated?

Most of us understand that betting on such things is deeply irresponsible and unethical. After all, if a gambling market creates a financial reward for those who predict an event, then it also provides an incentive to make that event happen, no matter how horrific. Why just commit a political assassination when you can also profit from that assassination?

Well, guess what? You don't have to wait for this hypothetical prediction market to be created. It already has. It's called Augur, and it's currently running on the Ethereum network.

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Comments (15)

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  1. I Shot Santa says:

    Thanks James. I remember reading about such a system once, some years ago, but nothing since. This is really great news! While the system is already overwhelmed trying to clamp down on freedom in so many other areas, anarchists just added another impossible task to the list. This is truly revolutionary. The implications of this deserve a lot more study; it’s as if it is a medusa like octopus with it’s abilities to impact society. JimBob who also remembers the old number runners that had a 90 something per cent payout, versus the 60% payout of the good old fluoridian numbers racket.

  2. HomeRemedySupply says:

    Fantastic article by James Corbett!
    I did not know.

  3. manbearpig says:

    Augur, Ross Ulbricht…

    does anarchy rhyme with amoral…?

    I know it does and it doesn’t in the good ways with its faith in the human being but…

    It must appear amoral in disturbing ways to curious outside observers…

    ’cause anarchist people giving away food are portrayed as criminals…

  4. scpat says:

    RE: ABC: Strike Being Prepared…

    This article is a nice example of how a media outlet (ABC) can tell their version of events, and spin a one-sided narrative. Basically the story line is, “Iran is a terror exporting nation that is on a mission to destabilize the Middle East and ‘deny Israel the right to exist’ (lolz)”. They leave out the part of why might Iran be involved in multiple countries. Oh yeah! Those are the countries the U.S. or allies of the U.S. are trying to destabilize and export terror to themselves. Imagine that coincidence. Just laughable. How dare Iran try to counter actions that hostile nations are trying to stir up in Iran’s own backyard.

    • danmanultra says:

      US of Isreal does not believe in the sovereignty of any other nations but their own, and barely even that… I remember when everyone I knew was excited that Obama had Osama assassinated. I seemed to be the only person disturbed that it involved completely circumventing the national sovereignty of Pakistan. Made me realize Obama and his allies only paid lip service to helping other nations while behind their backs he and his allies plotted and schemed. And Trump and friends just do more of the same….

  5. Duck says:

    I heard about the terrorism betting exchange some years before… also one polling anonymously the employees in a company to see if a project would be ready on time…. it kinda makes sense that crowds that dont have a vested interest or ego stake in any outcome give better and more honest opinions.
    I’d bet that there are ways for interested parties to game the system … the funny thing is that insider knowledge would be EXACTLY what people using this exchange to predict things with want

  6. FlyingAxblade says:

    is Kitty History really Purrstory? the fur will vibrate

  7. Octium says:

    If the value of crypto-currencies were to continually increase then there would be a point were it would be more economical for the owners of crypto-curriences to pool their resources together and bribe the government to abolish itself rather than pay the taxes.

    Then there would be no way anyone could shoot the president.

  8. danmanultra says:

    I bet that government will continue to murder and lock people in cages. Anyone want to start a pool on this?

    • mkey says:

      How does one bet on a sure thing? Like betting on a sunset this evening.

    • jason.s says:

      Remember though danmanultra the government is fiction. There is no living body that can know itself as government. There are people who associate themselves as a member and wrongfully presume authority to do harmful things but they still aren’t government. Government is fiction. It only has existence on paper and in people’s fantasy. So it won’t be the government who murders and locks people in cages, it will be everyday people who falsely presume the authority to do such horrendous acts.

  9. ElectricHeavyOrchestra says:

    Have a word with Abel Danger if you want some additional juicy information on ‘betting on anything’.

  10. jason.s says:

    Emphasizing the decentralization part of this does give a silver lining. I don’t think I could in good conscience place bets on unfavorable events happening to anyone. The fact that there’s no putting the genie back into the bottle does entice me to think of other ways that decentralization might benefit mankind.

    Perhaps if the patenting system were unleashed into the blockchain sphere, technology that has been restricted can finally reach people who have the capacity to make it real. Perhaps if all the writings in the world could be put in blockchain, then a storehouse of knowledge greater than a handful of library’s combined would be accessible to everyone. Sans some cataclysmic event like AI takeover, massive asteroid event or worldwide power system failure, there’s no way to regulate who can access this information. Connecting ideas with people who have the potential to make something from them could certainly liberate mankind from the false dependence on the government system of control through limitation and restriction.

  11. HomeRemedySupply says:

    Corbett has a “Recommended Viewing” Video entitled Life Lessons From 100-Year-Olds. It was very interesting.

    Glutathione Levels
    Recently, I ran across this 5 minute video discussing Glutathione.

    Towards the end of the video, Dr. Don Colbert talks about research which shows that those folks who live to be over 100 years old have very high levels of glutathione on par with much younger folks.

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